Simplicity and robustness - learning from Linda Raschke, Ken Tropin and Curtis Faith

"The minute you think you have found the key to trading, I promise you the markets will change the lock." - Linda Bradford Raschke

It is very easy to think that there is a magic set of parameters which will work best in a chosen market.

The problem is that a certain set of parameters, on a particular timeframe, may work well for a specific period of time, in specific market conditions. But as soon as you dare think "Eureka - this is it!", the markets will change character and those parameters will not work as well.

A typical example of a losing trade cut short

Here is a typical set up which I opened a position last week and cut taking the small loss the following day.

There is nothing out of the ordinary in the set up on this stock - there has been some recent price strength, a pattern of higher highs and higher lows emerging, combined with a consolidation period where volatility (as shown by my Volatility Factor indicator) has contracted.

Current trades update and more potential setups

In this recent post I mentioned a couple of potential set ups I was watching as well as including the charts highlighting some recently taken trades. Here is an update, plus a few more setups which I've added to my watchlist.

The Top 10 most read blog posts

It is amazing to me that, since starting this blog back in 2008, it has now received one million page hits.

The blog has morphed from initially being more of a diary of my own thoughts and my trading, to talking more about the general concepts involved in trend following.

While trading is one of the most popular keywords on any internet search, trend following is more of a niche area. To many, it is a marmite approach to the markets - you either love it or hate it.

Some recent entries and current watchlist charts

I have a number of specific rules which govern the type of price set ups I look for. To help me identify these I have developed and refined scans over a number of years.

My original scan codes only identified price breakouts at the point they occurred. This meant I had to be in front of the screen and see these pop up in real time so that I could get in close to the breakout level. I've now been able to re-code these so I can identify these set ups prior to breakout.

This enables me to enter stop orders on a Good Til Cancelled basis on the market open.

On defining a trend, interpreting volatility and when to go fishing

Jesse Livermore aboard the Anita Venetian

"Your definition of trend is the smoothing method you use. The methods you use to define trend are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend." - Ed Seykota.

Some words of wisdom from David Druz

David Druz is a long-time trend follower who was the first mentee of Ed Seykota. He has run Tactical Investment Management since the early 1980's. Here are some of his nuggets of wisdom:

Current market volatility and staying the course

In the last couple of weeks we have seen an ever-increasing level of volatility within the context of a sharp drop in price in the major market averages.

We have also started to see intervention in the markets by governments and regulators - additional liquidity being provided and interest rate cuts, as well as market trading halts (up and down) being triggered and the introduction of short selling bans on certain stocks.

Tesla - letting the big trends run

The recent price rise in Tesla is just another example where people who got into the uptrend, and been able to let the trend takes its course, have been able to profit handsomely.

Here is that chart. Based on my own entry and exit rules, entering on 13 December at the $363 level would have generated open profits of more than +22R as of now, with the peak being at over +31R in February. If ever you want an example of letting your profits run, this is it:

What my trading rules are designed to do

Conceptually, robust trend following systems are designed around the basic principles of identifying and capturing directional price movement, without having layers of complexity or being tailored to individual markets.

This leads to volatility in the performance achieved, as market conditions move through phases of 'trendiness' and differing levels of price volatility, but that is the compromise to robustness.

Using volatility contraction to increase your profits (part 2)

Following on from my previous post about the use of volatility-based position sizing, here is a little wrinkle you may want to consider:

Typically this type of position sizing method is calculated using a multiple of Average True Range over a specified 'look back' period, and is normally expressed as a pure monetary number. So, in the second example in the previous post, Stock B priced at $20 had a 2ATR reading of $1.

Using volatility contraction to increase your profits

Often you see people talking about a winning trade, and how far in percentage terms price moved in their favour after entry.

But on its own, this doesn't tell you anything - to me, it is a worthless metric when evaluating performance.

As a trader, I'm far more interested in the size of the profit (or loss) generated when expressed in terms of R.

Using Bitcoin as an example of why I love volatility contraction

On my last post, I talked about the recent big winning trade in Bitcoin on the long side from earlier this year,which generated a +21R profit. Yesterday, Bitcoin gave a short signal as price dropped. 

Would I have taken this signal? 

No. 

Let me explain why.

Experiencing the first big winning trend

When a trader starts adopting a trend following approach, there can be a steep learning curve in terms in truly understanding the ups and downs they will experience - both in terms of open equity and the emotions involved. 

Aspiring trend followers will more often than not go straight into a drawdown on cash equity. This is due to them adopting the basic principles of cutting losses short and letting profits run, combined with the low win rate that is typically achieved. 

My observation is that people quickly develop the need for good risk control and the cutting of losses, but by far the most challenging aspect of a trend following approach is the ability to remain faithful to your exit rules once you get into a profitable trade.

Trend following, absolute returns and controlling open risk

At its core, trend following is an 'absolute returns' approach. You only have to look at the high-octane monthly performance generated by the Turtles back in the 1980's to see that. But to achieve that, you generally cannot impose too tight a control over the levels of volatility you have to endure. That is the other side of the coin.

Stick or twist?

"We have a saying here: "It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect." We are not looking for the optimum method; we are looking for the hardiest method. Anyone can sit down and devise a perfect system for the past." - Larry Hite

A trader is always evolving, in terms of his ideas, beliefs and his method. As an example, you often read about how young 'fearless' traders learn to appreciate the importance of risk control - often after blowing up an account or two, or at the minimum having an emotionally demoralising experience associated with a major drawdown. Even some of the Market Wizards went through this.

Occasionally, a trader moves away from their original ideas and beliefs about how to make money. Again, some of the most successful traders have done this.

Questioning some popularly-held beliefs

Stripping back our beliefs and subsequently our rules to their absolute basics, as trend followers, ideally we would want to be able to:

• generate an entry signal as early as possible into a new trend;
• exit a non-performing trade, if the new trend has failed, as soon as possible; and
• allow our position to run as far as possible on our chosen timeframe until that trend is invalidated.

Around those basic concepts people can follow pure price data or utilise technical analysis to 'formulate' their entry and exit rules.

As I've said before, I can be a bit of a trading heretic, and like to challenge some of the more popularly-held beliefs about how to trade successfully.

Below are a couple of those beliefs which I believe are worth further scrutiny - the use of multiple timeframe analysis and trend 'filters'.

Some thoughts on defining market states

When people talk about the four market states, typically they refer to these as trending, non-trending, stable (low volatility) and volatile.

However, what you need to consider is there is no definitive answer to how you identify each state, and the answer may differ from trader to trader.

Letting the downtrends run

Having more losing trades than winning trades is to be expected as part of a trend following process. 

Part of the joy of trend following is that you never know when you will end up in a profitable trade, and once we do, we have no idea how long the trend will last for, and also how far price will move in our favour.

Recency bias, and labelling markets as easy or hard

I've seen it said that one of the goals you should have as a trader is to try and make money when things are easy, and that you should be more defensive and protect what you have when things are hard.

That is all very laudable, but from a trend follower's perspective there is a problem with that.