Monday, May 07, 2018

The futility of predictions

Yesterday I had the misfortune to be copied in on an Facebook thread discussing an impending stock market crash, together with an invitation to join the group who were discussing it. 

This post had more than 200 comments from a number of traders covering the intricacies of the current economic climate and their opinions on this - most of which I didn't understand. 

Idly browsing through those comments wasted ten minutes of my life that I couldn't get back. But it did give me the inspiration for this post.

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Trend following, robustness and adapting to market conditions

There is a school of thought amongst some traders which says you need to adapt and adjust your chosen method, in response to changes in the market environment. These might relate to the markets you trade switching from a trending to a non-trending state, or from suffering varying levels of volatility. 

Against this, others will say having to go through this process on a regular basis indicates possible over-optimization and a lack of robustness in your method.

Saturday, April 14, 2018

Staying in my own circle of competence

Every so often someone contacts me to say they disagree with what I say and my beliefs, that some other successful trader they know of says the opposite to me, or simply to assure me that trend following doesn't work.

Well, I have news for you - and them.

I couldn't care less if your beliefs or methods are different to my own, which are rooted in those of people like Seykota, Dennis, Donchian, Parker, Hite, Livermore and others.

Monday, April 02, 2018

The payback for following your rules

Quite often I get into a trade where price starts moving nicely in my favour, before reversing and taking out my stop, leaving me with either a significant erosion of open profits, or may be even taking a small loss. 

Not very interesting or exciting I know, but that is what following my rules allowed me to get.