Friday, September 24, 2021

Sticking with the process

My historical win rate is about 30%, so with the majority of my trades generating losses, I have learnt to accept losing money along the way.

To me, what is far more important than the monetary outcome of any one trade is whether I am sticking to my process and my execution:

Wednesday, July 28, 2021

The joy of helping an aspiring trend follower

A while back I received an urgent message from one of the traders in my mentoring group. He managed to get himself into a trade where a trend had developed in his favour and was now (in his words) "going parabolic". 

This person had been developing his method over a period of time, so that it best meshed with his full-time job, which in a pre-COVID world demanded long hours and lots of transatlantic travel. As a result, his chosen timeframe and parameters are somewhat longer-term than my own, but the underlying principles remain exactly the same.

Monday, July 19, 2021

More on knowns, unknowns and risk


The recent passing of Donald Rumsfeld caused me to reflect again on his (in)famous "known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns" speech (see here), but the truth is that we always have such instances possible in the markets, at any time.

Thursday, July 15, 2021

On defining a trend, interpreting volatility and when to go fishing



Jesse Livermore aboard the Anita Venetian

"Your definition of trend is the smoothing method you use. The methods you use to define trend are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend." - Ed Seykota.