The expectancy gap and performance leaks

When trading, you are free to construct your own methodology and set of rules to use - what markets to trade, triggers for entries and exits, how much equity to risk etc. That's the easy part.
 
For the majority of us, the difficult bit is ensuring you keep operating within that framework.

Building your own approach to the markets and the decisions and actions you take are entirely within your own control. But you have no control over what the markets do. Ideally, you want to react to the market's price movements, and trade within the confines of your carefully constructed framework.

Some recent entries and current watchlist charts

I have a number of specific rules which govern the type of price set ups I look for. To help me identify these I have developed and refined scans over a number of years.

My original scan codes only identified price breakouts at the point they occurred. This meant I had to be in front of the screen and see these pop up in real time so that I could get in close to the breakout level. I've now been able to re-code these so I can identify these set ups prior to breakout.

This enables me to enter stop orders on a Good Til Cancelled basis on the market open.

The joy of helping an aspiring trend follower

A while back I received an urgent message from one of the traders in my mentoring group. He managed to get himself into a trade where a trend had developed in his favour and was now (in his words) "going parabolic". 

This person had been developing his method over a period of time, so that it best meshed with his full-time job, which in a pre-COVID world demanded long hours and lots of transatlantic travel. As a result, his chosen timeframe and parameters are somewhat longer-term than my own, but the underlying principles remain exactly the same.

Focus on your own trading and the trends you are looking to profit from

We know that markets can move from a trending to non-trending state, or vice versa, at any time. But as Ed Seykota says, there is no such thing as 'the' trend. 

Also, different traders will have different interpretations about the type of trend they are looking for - one person's long-term trend may be another person's short-term trend.

The important point here is that how anyone else defines a trend is irrelevant to your own trading and performance.

New testimonial

This week I received the following testimonial from Stephen, who I have now known for a number of years and has been an active member within our small group of traders:

Don't think you know better than your rules

"If you take emotion - would be, could be, should be - out of it, and look at what is, and quantify it, I think you have a big advantage over most human beings." - John W Henry

In trading, hindsight can be a not-so wonderful thing. Your stop gets hit, kicking you out of a trade for a small profit. All of a sudden, price takes off in the direction you were looking to profit from, leaving you on the sidelines.

Take it from me. If it's happened once, it will happen a thousand times.

Is this type of event frustrating? Sure.

How do you define a trend?

The past has happened. The future doesn't exist.

Therefore, we can only react and respond to what is happening in the moment of now.

So, for traders the question is, what is price doing now?

The tricky bit is how you define "what is price doing now".

Questioning some popularly-held beliefs

Stripping back our beliefs and subsequently our rules to their absolute basics, as trend followers, ideally we would want to be able to:

• generate an entry signal as early as possible into a new trend;
• exit a non-performing trade, if the new trend has failed, as soon as possible; and
• allow our position to run as far as possible on our chosen timeframe until that trend is invalidated.

Around those basic concepts people can follow pure price data or utilise technical analysis to 'formulate' their entry and exit rules.

As I've said before, I can be a bit of a trading heretic, and like to challenge some of the more popularly-held beliefs about how to trade successfully.

Below are a couple of those beliefs which I believe are worth further scrutiny - the use of multiple timeframe analysis and trend 'filters'.

Developing your level of competence - which step are you on?

In trading, as in any walk of life, it takes plenty of experience to evolve from being unconsciously incompetent to unconsciously competent in what you are doing.

Bitcoin and the evaporation of open profits

One of the most difficult aspects of trend following for inexperienced traders to accept is that you never get out at the extreme of a price move, and that there is always an element of 'giving back' a portion of open profits before an exit signal is given.

Generally speaking, the longer-term the trends you are trying to capture, the more wiggle-room your trailing stops need to give to current price action - this is to ensure that you are not stopped out due to a relatively minor retracement or price noise.

When starting to trade a new method or parameters, even if you have may be got the confidence of decent back testing results, there is still the big step into the unknown when it comes to dealing with the psychological element of letting profits evaporate when you have real money in the game.

This was brought home to me recently when discussing a long-term trend following system with an aspiring trend follower.

Jesse Livermore, the Dow and the changing market state

Below we have the current daily chart of the Dow. This is a classic example of a 'tale of two market states'. Up to the beginning of February, we can see a stable (low volatility), trending state. And from the beginning of February to date, a volatile, non-trending state. This is highlighted by the rise in the readings of the volatility factor indicator and the 2ATR measurement.

Trading on your own two feet

Everyone talks up their own method of how to trade. I'm no different. I am unashamed fan of trend following, and hopefully this blog acts as a useful resource to those who favour a similar approach or who want to learn more about the basic concept.

But within that broad definition of trend following, people can easily tailor it to their own needs or requirements.

In my own case, trend following as a concept is a good match, based on my basic beliefs, the amount of time I want to spend in front of charts, and my family and other time commitments.

The timeframe I choose is also the best match for my personality - towards the shorter-term end of the trend following scale which stops impatience getting the better of me, but still long enough so that I can get into multiple-R profitable trades. It also has the benefit of getting out of losing trades quickly.

However, unlike other many other market participants, I know and accept there are many other successful traders who trade in a completely different manner to me.

My biggest loss in 4 years

So, let's not beat around the bush. This morning I suffered my largest loss on a single trade since the summer of 2013.

As of yesterday's close, the position was +1.13R in profit. Within a few seconds of the market open, I was stopped out for a -1.95R loss.

S*@t happens. Let's look at the chart:

Two Mice and a Maze

Today I came across an old analogy highlighting the dangers of curve fitting your approach too much: 

An example in trade management - the trailing stop

When trading using a clearly defined set of rules, it can easily become frustrating for an inexperienced trader to get stopped out of a position, only for price to then reverse and start moving back in the direction of your trade.

Some see that as a weakness of their method. Yet I, and many other traders who religiously follow their rules (be they automated or not), see that as a strength. 

Some random charts

It's been a while since I have posted some random charts, but here goes:

It is interesting to note the pattern currently developing in the German DAX. You can clearly see the 'staircase' of higher and higher lows in place from early December last year before price stopped moving up in June.

Regrets and trading

If your trading is not 100% systematic then there is always the danger or possibility of making an irrational, emotion-driven decision which can cause damage to your trading account, as well as issues with your own mindset.

It is very easy for one such decision to eliminate several months of disciplined trading in one go.

If you are looking at your trading as a long-term endeavour (and NOT as a 'get rich quick' scheme) then you don't want to suffer having any trading 'regrets'.

Creating good trading habits

Being successful as a trader over the long-term involves being consistent in your approach. This means creating a pattern of good habits that you can repeat.

Losing traders may be using an approach that has a positive expectancy, but they are not getting the results that they should - this can be down to poor execution, poor preparation, or making emotional, irrational decisions, as well as other factors.

What you can learn from Seve Ballesteros

Ballesteros on the 12th tee, Augusta 1980

In 1980 Severiano Ballesteros won his first US Masters by 4 shots. At one point in the final round he was a mammoth 10 strokes clear of the field. If some people thought his win in the Open Championship the previous year was a fluke, this announced his arrival as a world star.

In his book Natural Golf, Ballesteros talked about the aftermath of that success and how it actually had a detrimental effect on his game for a time:

The case for simplicity and the dangers of trying to improve

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

The above quote is attributed to Albert Einstein, and it is something I try to adhere to with my own trading. That said, there is a balancing act between keeping things as simple as possible, against striving for improvement which may mean adding complexity to what you are doing.