Some recent entries and current watchlist charts

I have a number of specific rules which govern the type of price set ups I look for. To help me identify these I have developed and refined scans over a number of years.

My original scan codes only identified price breakouts at the point they occurred. This meant I had to be in front of the screen and see these pop up in real time so that I could get in close to the breakout level. I've now been able to re-code these so I can identify these set ups prior to breakout.

This enables me to enter stop orders on a Good Til Cancelled basis on the market open.

On defining a trend, interpreting volatility and when to go fishing

Jesse Livermore aboard the Anita Venetian

"Your definition of trend is the smoothing method you use. The methods you use to define trend are entirely up to you, so you get to define trend any way you wish; everyone may have a different idea of "the" trend." - Ed Seykota.

Focus on your own trading and the trends you are looking to profit from

We know that markets can move from a trending to non-trending state, or vice versa, at any time. But as Ed Seykota says, there is no such thing as 'the' trend. 

Also, different traders will have different interpretations about the type of trend they are looking for - one person's long-term trend may be another person's short-term trend.

The important point here is that how anyone else defines a trend is irrelevant to your own trading and performance.

Don't think you know better than your rules

"If you take emotion - would be, could be, should be - out of it, and look at what is, and quantify it, I think you have a big advantage over most human beings." - John W Henry

In trading, hindsight can be a not-so wonderful thing. Your stop gets hit, kicking you out of a trade for a small profit. All of a sudden, price takes off in the direction you were looking to profit from, leaving you on the sidelines.

Take it from me. If it's happened once, it will happen a thousand times.

Is this type of event frustrating? Sure.

How do you define a trend?

The past has happened. The future doesn't exist.

Therefore, we can only react and respond to what is happening in the moment of now.

So, for traders the question is, what is price doing now?

The tricky bit is how you define "what is price doing now".

Some thoughts on defining market states

When people talk about the four market states, typically they refer to these as trending, non-trending, stable (low volatility) and volatile.

However, what you need to consider is there is no definitive answer to how you identify each state, and the answer may differ from trader to trader.

Trading the downside - remaining faithful to the process

The last couple of months have been very positive as profitable downtrends have appeared in a number of stocks, both at home and abroad. Fortunately, I have been able to profit from some of these (while suffering small losses in a few others!), and while some which developed into downtrends have now triggered their exit signals, prices in others have remained in a downtrend.

This has potentially meant I may have been able to profit from the downwards move while those who trade longer-term trends have had to suffer an erosion of open profits, or even suffering losses, from a pullback or retracement within the context of a prevailing longer-term uptrend.

Developing your level of competence - which step are you on?

In trading, as in any walk of life, it takes plenty of experience to evolve from being unconsciously incompetent to unconsciously competent in what you are doing.

Trend following - the Marmite way to trade

Trend following is like Marmite - you either love it or hate it. Who on earth would trade in such a manner? Surely you need to know whether something is overbought or oversold, what the underlying fundamentals or earnings are, or...

Hang on a minute.

The 90:10 paradox

It is generally estimated at that 90% of all new traders lose their capital within a year.

In my experience, 90% of traders concentrate their efforts on their stock selection methods, rather than either their risk management or dealing with any psychological issues.

Coincidence?