Coming up - new trade record

Regular readers of the blog will know that I kept track of all trades taken and the associated performance metrics covering the period July 2012 to April 2017, at which point I took a short break from the markets.

PDF copies of those records are available here.

This covered the good, the bad and the ugly of trend following. Sure, there were losing trades (lots of them!) and losing phases, but that is the nature of the markets, and typical of this type of approach to trading.

Despite a win rate of only 30%, the annualised returns equated to almost +75%, with an overall return of +470%.*

This can only be achieved by following the time-honoured principles of trading breakouts, cutting losses, letting your profits run and using good risk control.

As from 01 November, I will be starting a new record of all trades taken going forward, with all of the same metrics.

Much ado about nothing

Well that's the first quarter wrapped up for 2016. And, as the metrics show, nothing much has happened in terms of performance. Looking at the monthly returns over the last year or so in particular, these losing months have been kept as small as possible. And, even after a period of non-performance, the returns on all closed trades is about 5R off of all time equity highs. Which, in the longer-term scheme of things, is nothing. One relatively decent trend will cover that.

As a comparison, below is a screenshot of the published monthly returns for Mark J Walsh & Co. While he was not one of the participants in the Turtles experiment from the 1980's, Walsh was an associate of Richard Dennis. You can view the monthly performance of other trend followers (including some of the former Turtles) here. 

Longevity is the key to success

For a trend follower, the lack of decent trends over the last couple of years or so in the stock markets was perhaps expected - 2008 on the downside, followed by 2009 and 2010 on the upside were fertile periods to profit from price trends. 2011 was a difficult year for me, whereas 2012 and 2013 offered favourable conditions.

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• Ongoing email/Skype support 

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Offer expires 30 November 2015.

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* All entries and exits taken are recorded and result in the performance and metrics shown on the blog.

Trend following on stocks can work - with certain changes

If you have read the Market Wizards series of books, then you will have come across a bunch of super-successful traders talking about what they do. Do they all trade the same way? Of course not. In fact, they all trade differently to one another in terms of their chosen timeframe, entry and exit rules, and the instruments they trade. But they all have developed the necessary psychological skills to succeed, along with incorporating strong risk management. These core elements are evident in every successful trader I can think of.

If it works - do it!

If you have found a trading methodology that generates positive returns, suits your personality and risk profile, then you have found your own trading holy grail.

The Pareto Principle

In the early 1900's, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth. Since then, this basic principle has been applied to many aspects of life, business, management etc.

I even unknowingly referred to this principle in my e-book, in which I stated the belief that 80% of all trades taken would cancel each other out - small losses and small losses. It was the remaining 20% of the trades that generated the overall profit.