Tuesday, May 06, 2014

A test of discipline and patience

As members of the mentoring programme will testify, the last few weeks have seen very little activity due to the condition of the general markets. It has been a test of patience and discipline for all concerned to wait for the picture to become clearer. When this will happen is anyone's guess - could happen tomorrow, could go on for a while longer.

Trend followers never predict what will happen - they wait for a potential trend to emerge and then follow the price action. If the trend quickly fails, no problem - a small loss is booked. If the trend develops, then we simply follow until such time that the trend finishes.

The charts below highlight the indecision that is apparent in the markets. The reasons for this are immaterial - the fact is that ultimately only price action can determine whether you make a profit or a loss on a trade. These charts, on this particular timeframe, show at best a very wide, volatile consolidation, and at worst the making of a potential downtrend starting to take shape.

Of course, there is nothing to say that markets will start going up tomorrow and we could quickly be at new highs in a matter of days. I don't have a crystal ball that works.

I have spoken repeatedly about the general market states, and which favour trend followers and which don't. A quick glance at these charts clearly that they are not favourable to us currently.

There is a saying that "I would rather be out, wanting to get in, rather than being in wishing I was out". I would far rather preserve capital waiting for the odds to move more in our favour, than risk it when market conditions are against us. If that means sitting on the sidelines, then so be it.

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