Thursday, June 14, 2012

...And these never did

In the interest of fairness, not all signals given by the system generate nice profits. Remember that historically speaking, a win percentage of around 40% should be sufficient to generate nice profits (allowing for suitable risk management). Below are some examples of charts where the signals simply do not go anywhere, causing repeated whipsaws and losses. In these examples I've focussed in on the last quarter of 2011, in which there was a period of high volatility and a lack of a trend in the general market. This was reflected in a lot of stocks, and I incurred a drawdown in this period. It is in times like these where your trading psychology skills are tested (can you keep faith with the system?) and where the risk parameters minimise your losses, keeping you in the game for those 'trendier' periods with lower volatility (such as the first couple of months in 2012) where you can profit.

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