As you can see, it's been a long time since I have posted any updates to this blog. I have however been busier than ever in the markets, and been able to make a decent return.
The last post I made in September 2008 warned of jumping into the market long at that point. As it turned out, the next few weeks saw a sharp drop in the markets, and those who were short the markets made a lot of money. Fortunately, I was able to make some (although probably not as much as I should have). Having had no experience of a market 'crash', I committed the error of exiting my positions too early.
Since March 2009 however, the markets have been in a strong uptrend, meaning the long side of the market was the place to be.
There have been a lot of fellow traders/bloggers trying to pick the top of this rally. Those traders have continually lost money - it's been like standing in front of a express train going at full tilt (I guess!).
A simple trend following strategy would have made a LOT of money in both the sharp fall last September/October, and the rally from the March low. In such periods, overbought/oversold indicators are of no use if trying to pick a turning point.
My own trading experience has shown me that trading the direction of the trend is the most consistent way for me to make money.