There is an old maxim in racing that you need to be on the right tyres for the weather and the track conditions at that moment in time.
When Lewis Hamilton is on track, and sees a load of dark clouds suddenly appear overhead, he doesn't go sprinting into the pits to get his car fitted with rain tyres.
No, the teams wait until the rain actually starts and the track is wet enough to change tyres. If they didn't, and the wet tyres were bolted on, they will quickly wear out if the rain doesn't arrive, or gets delayed (this is as they need water on the track to avoid losing the tread or overheat).
Should they put the rain tyres on and it doesn't rain, or before the track is wet enough for those tyres, that's their race ruined.
In some cases, the rain may actually start, but not sufficiently to dampen the track enough, and the drivers can continue to race on 'dry' racing tyres.
The teams have traditionally employed 'spotters', who may be at the far end of the circuit, or even stationed a few miles away, and can radio in advising of changes in weather, or the start of any rain.
Nowadays, while they also have sophisticated radar systems on the pit wall which can tell them not only the timing and direction of the coming rain, but also the intensity, they still don't have 100% accuracy.
Even with the spotters and the radar, the F1 teams react to the weather - they do not predict.
This is no different to trend following. Think about it.