Saturday, March 21, 2015

FTSE - has the spring finally been released?

Yesterday saw the FTSE 100 index in the UK finally crack the 7,000 level, thereby surpassing the previous all time high set on 31 December 1999.

I've shown below a long-term monthly chart of the index. What is particularly interesting to me is how price has consolidated just below those prior highs since around May 2013, with the volatility factor indicator falling away to be at its lowest reading across the near-30 years shown on the chart.

I've often referred in the past to contractions in volatility like this, which can act like the coiling of a spring. When the spring is finally released there can be a major move in the direction of the volatility expansion.

Refer to this post for more detail on how I look at volatility.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens here in the coming weeks and months.

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