Thursday, April 24, 2014

Wrong again!

So as soon as I start putting up blog posts about potential shorting opportunities and the factors you need to consider when shorting, the market does another about turn and moves back up. I'm wrong again!



But there's nothing new there - I'm wrong more often than I'm right. The trick is to keep the losses when you are wrong as small as possible, and for the winners to be allowed to run, with the potential to end up much larger than those losses.

This is a great example of why you should park your opinions or thoughts about what might/could/should happen and heed what price action is telling you.

Trend followers only react to price. We do not predict - the clue of what we do is in the name.

The indices are still in a wide range at the moment (albeit near all time highs in the US). Therefore, exposure is still very light. Capital preservation remains the main goal when market conditions are not favourable towards your chosen method of trading. Caution, patience and discipline are still needed. Not very exciting, I know, but that is the reality. As always, we will wait to see in which direction the markets want to go and we will act accordingly.



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