Saturday, April 14, 2012

I still see a downtrend - as well as an uptrend!

As mentioned earlier this week, the major indices have given a short signal. I'm sure some people who read my articles would have questioned what I was saying in this post as it was followed by two days of the markets going back up, interestingly back near to the levels of the original breakout on the short side - a case perhaps of support now turning into resistance? Despite the rebound in the markets on Wednesday and Thursday, the system still indicates that we are in the early stage of a new downtrend - that is the only way that I or other trend followers can interpret these charts.



Ironically, the positions I hold in my long term portfolio have slightly edged up this week, in spite of the general markets being down. These I continue to hold - the entry and exit points on this system are obviously different, as the timeframe and expected length of each trade is significantly longer than in my standard portfolio. On this particular timeframe, the general markets are in a pullback phase within an uptrend (refer to the chart of the Dow below), so this is a good example of what I was referring to in my previous post, about there being many different trends occurring at the same time, depending on your outlook and preferred timeframe.

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