Monday, August 08, 2011

Quote of the day

A trader friend of mine just sent me this quote which is pretty apt...

"Better to be on the sidelines in cash wishing I was in, rather than being in and wishing I was out....."

If you are trend following, with appropriate stops, then the second part of the quote is irrelevant, as it would apply to those trying to pick turning points, knife catchers and/or those who are hoping for a bounce so they can exit their positions and reduce their losses. As those who use indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastics, etc, will now be seeing, indicators and oscillators such as these are pretty much redundant when market conditions are like this. If you are a trend follower, you should either be short the market, or in cash.
 
As has been discussed on here before, trend following always catches the major moves, especially to the downside - think October 1987, the 2000 dot com bust, or 2008. Only the timing of the signal would would differ from one trend follower to the next, depending on the parameters they use (I guess it would have to be a very long term system that wouldn't currently be on a short signal).
 
If you currently short the general market indices, or individual equities, then congratulations - you've caught probably the major trend of the year.
 

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