tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-260124052024-03-12T09:21:44.367+00:00the trend followerCut losses. Run profits. Manage risk. Don't predict. Follow price and its trends.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1076125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26012405.post-20699221726959369712022-12-31T09:40:00.002+00:002022-12-31T09:41:04.929+00:00Simplicity and robustness - learning from Linda Raschke, Ken Tropin and Curtis Faith<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh05xK_zizRpZaukq6mXCYK5dY_gX7JMGQnyfJGfwMXZXt0iRSv-ei7auPnS0g086eJ6ZGnfm6wKRimsjGbzr9Y1sDxEwopHNtubTYoau5Oo2XWXd8XX8YSvNXVa9f5ox8qc9fBZqlLqGu2I-qqz-t8zp8xzyflVNdVhv1I7CcHJLcVDGo/s600/locksmith-changing-exterior-door-locks.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="600" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh05xK_zizRpZaukq6mXCYK5dY_gX7JMGQnyfJGfwMXZXt0iRSv-ei7auPnS0g086eJ6ZGnfm6wKRimsjGbzr9Y1sDxEwopHNtubTYoau5Oo2XWXd8XX8YSvNXVa9f5ox8qc9fBZqlLqGu2I-qqz-t8zp8xzyflVNdVhv1I7CcHJLcVDGo/w400-h266/locksmith-changing-exterior-door-locks.jpg" width="400"></a></div><br><span style="font-size: large;"><i style="font-family: georgia;">"The minute you think you have found the key to trading, I promise you the markets will change the lock."</i><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia;">- Linda Bradford Raschke</span></span><p></p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">It is very easy to think that there is a magic set of parameters which will work best in a chosen market.<br><br>The problem is that a certain set of parameters, on a particular timeframe, <i>may</i> work well for a specific period of time, in specific market conditions. But as soon as you dare think <i>"Eureka - this is it!"</i>, the markets will change character and those parameters will not work as well.<span></span></span><a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2022/12/simplicity-and-robustness-learning-from.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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was watching as well as including the charts highlighting some recently taken trades. Here is an update, plus a few more setups which I've added to my watchlist.<span></span></span></p><a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2022/12/current-trades-update-and-more.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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set of rules to use - what markets to trade, triggers for entries and exits, how much equity
to risk etc. That's the easy part.<br></span><span style="color: black;"><o:p> <br></o:p></span><span style="color: black;">For the majority of us, the difficult bit is ensuring you keep
operating within that framework.</span><span style="color: black;"><o:p><br><br></o:p></span><span style="color: black;">Building your own approach to the markets and the decisions
and actions you take are entirely within your own control. But you have no
control over what the markets do. Ideally, you want to react to the market's price movements, and trade within the confines of your carefully constructed framework.</span><span style="color: black;"><o:p><br><span></span></o:p></span></span></span></div><a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2022/11/the-expectancy-gap-and-performance-leaks.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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change the past - what's done is done.</div>
<br>
We also know that we don't know what will happen in the future - it doesn't
exist, and anything (or anyone) can do something which may
influence what will occur in the future.<br>
<br>
So, what are we left with? We can only react and respond to the moment of now.</span><br>
<a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2019/03/we-know-we-cannotchange-past-whats-done.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><br></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">Also, different traders will have different interpretations about the type of trend they are looking for - one person's long-term trend may be another person's short-term trend. <br><br>The important point here is that how anyone else d</span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">efines a trend is irrelevant to <i>your own</i> trading and performance.</span></div><div><span></span></div><a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2020/09/how-do-you-define-trend-we-know-that.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DkQgcE46m_aPIQicy_4sojTkA89opL5wEmHh2qlqF9FBbCVcYrY3PqXl7WqrUz-7HZoln02cIyn_QKMyfLSeuoW5W6iF1X34NNR53FBIO59i67C25PS8BJvcM2sk_Og2OJw/s1600/david_druz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="174" data-original-width="150" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_DkQgcE46m_aPIQicy_4sojTkA89opL5wEmHh2qlqF9FBbCVcYrY3PqXl7WqrUz-7HZoln02cIyn_QKMyfLSeuoW5W6iF1X34NNR53FBIO59i67C25PS8BJvcM2sk_Og2OJw/s320/david_druz.jpg" width="275"></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><i><br></i></span>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">David Druz is a long-time trend follower who was the first mentee of Ed Seykota. He has run Tactical Investment Management since the early 1980's. Here are some of his nuggets of wisdom:</span><br>
<a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2020/05/some-words-of-wisdom-from-david-druz.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX4Wy4j0myOq4596b3lxK2aPYybmKrlz_0db0we6ZmdF2obV-h2wslXkGSV5tN8je4fmdSIsGtKvHNRLtHnUEfzdHycRWCfLIMmT3Qyw11xakHQQnPBvM52T_4BGiMKPjWpOA/s1600/testimonial.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="756" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX4Wy4j0myOq4596b3lxK2aPYybmKrlz_0db0we6ZmdF2obV-h2wslXkGSV5tN8je4fmdSIsGtKvHNRLtHnUEfzdHycRWCfLIMmT3Qyw11xakHQQnPBvM52T_4BGiMKPjWpOA/s320/testimonial.png" width="320"></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">This week I received the following testimonial from Stephen, who I have now known for a number of years and has been an active member within our small group of traders:</span><br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5oiLfQRVYHF7xh-iejLatXeUjIk6IBzcUVkXP4jxYeoMnlYPSZCRO2V18wEP6aFAMKTVC8Cm27zICA8W-k5gYIJlQrGwE7Jw4hvbkPgMLRwICjCjeffjwl3hGR7WaPN_swxw/s1600/Epictetus.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="540" data-original-width="540" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5oiLfQRVYHF7xh-iejLatXeUjIk6IBzcUVkXP4jxYeoMnlYPSZCRO2V18wEP6aFAMKTVC8Cm27zICA8W-k5gYIJlQrGwE7Jw4hvbkPgMLRwICjCjeffjwl3hGR7WaPN_swxw/s320/Epictetus.jpg" width="320"></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">The stoic philosopher Epictetus once said that <span style="background-color: white;"><i>“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.”</i></span></span><br>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><br></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">In the world of trading however, plenty of participants seem to think they have two mouths and one ear. They aren't interested in listening; they are simply wanting to speak - often over the market itself.</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><br>Here is that chart. Based on my own entry and exit rules, entering on 13 December at the $363 level would have generated open profits of more than +22R as of now, with the peak being at over +31R in February. If ever you want an example of letting your profits run, this is it:</span><br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Y-xV8BJL5WWnxFT48eL3iaW56FLjQZ00HOYvo-cBAhvyTnZcht16ldQAwCbtlvp4KGpTJPT1LVJudLPeh8x4lwHlecMEdbps6lmvKCQQetPHGK3PmdKZfu-CdnkytloDzAs/s1600/stock+market+stress.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="620" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7Y-xV8BJL5WWnxFT48eL3iaW56FLjQZ00HOYvo-cBAhvyTnZcht16ldQAwCbtlvp4KGpTJPT1LVJudLPeh8x4lwHlecMEdbps6lmvKCQQetPHGK3PmdKZfu-CdnkytloDzAs/s320/stock+market+stress.jpg" width="320"></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><i>"If you take emotion - would be, could be, should be - out of it, and look at what is, and quantify it, I think you have a big advantage over most human beings."</i> - John W Henry<br><br>In trading, hindsight can be a not-so wonderful thing. Your stop gets hit, kicking you out of a trade for a small profit. All of a sudden, price takes off in the direction you were looking to profit from, leaving you on the sidelines.</span><br>
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<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><br>Take it from me. If it's happened once, it will happen a thousand times.<br><br>Is this type of event frustrating? Sure. </span><br>
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<a href="https://www.thetrendfollower.com/2019/11/using-volatiilty-contraction-to.html#more">Read more »</a><div class="blogger-post-footer"><!-- Place this tag where you want the +1 button to render -->
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